Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
