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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still