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At first, Trump appeared to take a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "significant consequences" in August if Putin persisted hindering peace discussions, the former president ultimately introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly impacted Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively weaken that very autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the leader. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously compromised.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that are a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually decide to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Every extremist doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative has Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has violated similar treaties in the past – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied territory in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community believe Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate unified military response" should Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the security presence, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. But in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of Western powers, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not